I’ve been actively involved in the investment markets for almost two decades. The past six weeks have produced some of the most difficult trading conditions of that time–particularly for major market averages like the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials. Tight choppy trading has made it nearly impossible to make money trading these indices.

Amidst all this market gloom and misery, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have provided some welcome opportunities. We’re not talking double-digit returns during that time, but at least there are a handful of sectors that have produced positive gains. Contrast that to the Nasdaq, which since the start of February is down almost 2%. It shows up as the purple line on the chart below. What makes this pattern especially difficult is the lack of even short-term trends–moves that last five or six market days.

030906.jpg

Since the start of February, the most productive industry sector has been telecommunications. The red line is Merrill Lynch Telecom HOLDRS (TTH). It has gained 7% over the period shown. There are several other telecommunications funds that have done well, including iShares Dow Jones U.S. Telecommunications Index Fund (IYT), iShares S&P Global Telecommunications Index Fund (IXP), and Telecom Brasileiras (TBH). Telecommunications remains a sector that has potential for continued and explosive growth. Here in the U.S. where every family has at least half a dozen phones and several phone numbers, we take this industry for granted. There are still many areas of the world where making a phone call is difficult and expensive. Significant changes have occurred in the past decade, but there are still many opportunities for exponential growth in emerging market areas.

Another sector that has done well in recent weeks is real estate. For at least a year now, we’ve heard dire reports and predictions for the U.S. real estate market. Extremists are calling for a collapse of housing prices that will lead to a nationwide economic meltdown. For months I’ve written that there is not a national real estate bubble that is going to burst. Certainly there are regional areas where speculation has raised prices to unsustainable levels. But that is not the case in most of the nation. From a historical perspective, long-term mortgage rates remain low and housing is still affordable for most Americans. There are problems with interest-only loans and rising rates on adjustable rate mortgages. But the fact remains that people are still buying homes at a record pace in many areas.

The yellow line on the chart is iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Major Index Fund (ICF). It has gained 3% over the period shown and more than 13% over the past six months. Another real estate fund also doing well is streetTRACKS Wilshire REIT (RWR).

The green line on the chart is iShares Dow Jones Transportation Index Fund (IYT), up 2% over the past five weeks and nearly 22% over the past six months. The transportation sector is benefiting from lower oil prices and this fund will probably continue to do well until that situation changes. In comparison, the lower oil prices have pounded energy funds since the first of February. Most have lost somewhere between 7% and 15% since that time.

The drop in crude oil prices has also hurt Latin American and emerging market funds. This group had been a top sector over the past year, but these funds dropped sharply in the past three weeks and broke through the bottom support of their trading channel. Investors holding these funds should probably look for an exit point. While it is possible they could resume their upward trend, it is likely that other sectors will offer better profit opportunities in the near future.

In addition to the sectors mentioned above, there are a handful of other individual ETFs that produced positive gains in the past five weeks. But it is a little early to declare that they have established new bull trends. Part of the reason major indices are still trading in a narrow channel is that the economy is likely at a transitional juncture. When stocks break out of this channel, it is likely that the leading sectors will not be the same ones that held the top spots during the past year or so. Another week or two should bring a much clearer focus.